my bets on web3 - round 2

Exactly 1 year ago today I published my first article on this website. After a year of experience working in the web3 world I will look back on the bets and see how they've held up.

The future is multi-chain

I still firmly believe this. Even beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two chains that will undoubtedly be used for a long long time, more layer-1 chains will emerge to fit specific use cases. Cosmos and Solana are two that come to mind. Layer-2s on top of Ethereum will also prosper.

The hype cycles will continue

This remains true as well. Like the seasons come and go, like the ice ages pass through time, like the economy has booms and recessions, so too will crypto. Use-cases and adoption will spur big investments while economic recessions will refine the ecosystems back down to the fundamental use cases. I expect this to be a good thing long term.

Bitcoin will be the best digital store of value

I would actually revise this one to state that Bitcoin will be the best store of value period. All value locked in fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies will aggregate to Bitcoin over time. Bitcoin has the most strong fundamentals that a currency ever has had and ever will have. It's only a matter of time.

There will be some form of decomposition/slimming mechanism in the most successful layer-1s

This isn't my forte, I'm not running any nodes or miners of my own, but this feels like it's probably true. I'll stand by this one. If we want to run nodes from our phones we need blockchains to be slim.

There will be a revolution in how the energy that powers a proof of work system is stored and spent

Yes. More true than ever and such a powerful idea on top of that. The ability to flip flop between energy and money is so potent. Excess energy that can't be spent becomes money, waiting to be spent when energy is scarce. Any developing nation can benefit from this now and civilization can benefit from this so so much once our energy capture technology improves. I look forward to the world where we store seasonally available renewable energy as money.

Take Lebanon for example. It is a country with excess seasonal energy in the form of solar and hydroelectric, but a lack of economic infrastructure to make any use of it. Bitcoin mining is thriving there. People are escaping poverty with mining machines.

And now on top of these old bets I will add a few new ones too.

We will not reach hyperbitcoinization for at least 20 more years

This one is a sad prediction. I wish so badly the world could see the beauty in Bitcoin this very moment but the truth is it requires a familiarity and trust that many people alive today will never have. Bitcoin will gain adoption with the generation born in 2008 and after, hearing the word Bitcoin used frequently in the media and having no notion of a world without Bitcoin.

A blockchain ecosystem will establish statehood with land & legislation within the next 20 years

Statehood has transcended a geographical border established with politics and violence. Blockchain for the first time has enabled a network state. An ecosystem can form on solid principles, verifiable and transparent on-chain, and individuals far and wide can join that ecosystem, no geographical limitations required. When this ecosystem reaches critical mass and is running as a state runs for all intents and purposes, purchasing land is the natural next step.

We will see another country adopt Bitcoin as an official currency within the next year

Fiat currency is a failed experiment. As more currencies fail, as more federal reserve banking systems prove their corruption and consistently disregard the wellbeing of civilians, and as more populations elect radical new voices into office in the hopes of a fresh start, we will see more countries adopt Bitcoin. Many countries in South America and the Middle East are primed for Bitcoin adoption if they could only organize a suitable leadership soon.